US Nationals Preview: Men!

It's not exactly raining Men, unless you're Jimmy Ma.

While the rest of these suckers are competing, Nathan is getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. Seriously.

This time on The Nice Capades….

• The Dudes who are probably on the Olympic team.

• The Dudes who are scrabbling for the last seat on the bus

• The other Dudes

• Three Journals I’m keeping

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Good morning! We are down to our last preview before US Nationals, and not a minute too soon because the Pairs are live at 5:30 ET tonight. (Full schedule here.)

Let’s talk Men! Much like Dance, this is a story of Absolutely, Probably, and ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

This event could be wild because Men are notorious for “Menning,” which I guess sounds obvious. In skating lingo, “Menning” describes the tendency for ordinals in the Men’s event to flip drastically between the short and long program. The same skater will place 2nd in the short and 9th in free. Or vice versa. And then place 4th overall. The difficulty of landing quad jumps consistently leads to some wild swings in scores, so it really will be a photo finish to see who ends up on the podium here. As the commentators like to say, you can’t win in the short program but you can lose.

The US has three Olympic spots for Men. Two spots seem fairly settled… one spot (maaaaaybe two) are up for grabs.

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The Very, Very Likely Winner Unless He is Sick, Injured, Completely Meltdowns to Unprecedented Levels, or Decides to Engage in Some Kind of Performance Art

Ilia Malinin: Infamous Jumper of the Quad Axel and SEVEN QUAD FREE SKATE. For reference: Nathan Chen won in a landslide in Beijing with FIVE quads. Ilia’s broken his own World Record twice this year, and he’s been flirting with throwing out a QUINT. He is a phenomenon, a generational talent. If you’re new here— think Simone Biles on ice. He is simply doing things that no one else can do, and he’s doing it consistently. He’s not flawless; he’s been known to eff it up at Nationals, and he’s had a few competitions where he leaves the door open. But he would really have to fall on almost every jump to lose his gold medal here. Listen for him narrating his own spoken word program in the free skate. It’s very Deep Teenager (though he is actually 21, now). I’m also very interested to see what he wears upon arrival at the competition because he’s trying to frame himself like world famous professional athletes, so he often shows up dressed like Neo from the Matrix while Alysa Liu rolls in next to him in sweats so baggy she could share them with Amber and Isabeau.

The Other Guy Probably Assured an Olympic Spot but He Really Can’t Be a Disaster Here

Jason Brown: Maybe the most artistic competitive skater in the world right now? Definitely one of the most beloved skaters.

Anyway, you know how Americans likes to remind everyone that we saved everyone by entering the fray in WWII? (I’m not asking if you agree this is true— I’m just asking if you recognize it’s a common refrain from certain Americans.)

Jason Brown: US Placements at Worlds/Olympics :: America: WWII. (It’s been a while since my SAT prep days, but I think that makes sense, right?)

He doesn’t have a single quad, but he keeps showing up at exactly the right time and helping Team USA keep three Men’s spots while more technical skaters crash out. His early season has not looked extremely strong, but he’s really not scoring that badly in comparison to his fellow American Dudes. He’s PROBABLY done enough over the last quad to earn an Olympic spot; they owe him for helping Ilia keep the lights on. But he’s in trouble if he stumbles and two of the Third Man candidates have the best night of their lives here. I think he’s fine?? But maybe say a rosary or light a candle just in case.

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And Who Could Be That Third Man?

Tomoki Hiwatashi: He’s a previous Jr World Champ, but he’s been chaotic for years. He usually pulls off one great competition a year. Except this season… he’s finally consistent. If you asked me a year ago, I would have said Tomoki didn’t have a chance at the Olympics. Now? I think he might actually be the frontrunner for the Third Man. And I don’t hate it. He’s a showman and pretty fun to watch. He won me over at Cup of China, where he dedicated his personal best performance to his good friend, Camden Pulkinen; he got the last minute call for Cup of China when Camden withdrew. A good egg, we like him. We won’t be mad if he’s named to the team.

Maxim Naumov: Max is probably the weakest candidate for the Third Man given his uneven scores this season, but everyone WANTS this for him so much. Both of his parents died in the horrific plane crash that killed many US skaters and coaches last January. That Max is even in contention here is astounding. I think if he skates two clean programs, USFS will name him to the Olympic team. And his programs are extremely well constructed and very moving, so he will bring the house down if he’s even mostly good. But they’re not going to just hand it to him; he does have to earn it. I’m just saying— if he does well here, they’ll probably really lean into that “discretionary” criteria.

Andrew Torgashev, aka Torgs: Sigh. If this kid hadn’t come out swinging at Jason Brown last November, I would be happy to tell you about his status as the Pizza King and root for him to earn an Olympic spot so we could watch him make pizza jokes in the Olympic village. Unfortunately, Torgs chose (metaphorical) violence. I wrote all about it here if you’d like a recap. He’s still very much a contender. It’s just harder to cheer for him now.

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The Extremely Dark Horses Who Are So Dark That They Might Actually Be Invisible At Night

Jimmy Ma: Jimmy is 30, so there’s a good chance it’s his last US Nationals. His surprise bronze at Four Continents last year gave us all a little spark of hope— could the guy made famous for skating “Turn Down For What” possibly squeak into an Olympics? But he just hasn’t managed the scores this season. You could see the exact moment when he realized the Olympics were out of reach; it was about the same time he swapped out his operatic “Nessun Dorma” free skate for a medley of 70s gay disco songs, especially highlighting “It’s Raining Men.” It’s like he decided he needed to go out on his own terms and those terms were hip thrusting camp. Honestly, they should still give him that Third Spot because he could be the Personality Hire for Team USA. No Third Man candidate is actually going to win an Olympic Medal. They might as well have fun with it.

Jacob Sanchez: He had a standout season in his last year as a junior skater last year, and it seemed like he might be able to play spoiler for the Third Man spot this season. But again, the scores just aren’t there. He’s probably hoping to make a statement to set himself up for next quad. Last year, they mic’d up his mom during one of his programs, and you could hear her calling, “Work it, baby!” So I hope we get another taste of that again this year. He’s probably hoping for a Four Continents berth to keep building World Standing points for the next quad.

Lucius Kazanecki: He doesn’t have the international minimum scores to even make it to the Olympic team, but he technically qualifies for the US candidate pool because of his strong performances this year on the junior circuit. I think this is like his debutant ball— he wants you to know he’s here and he’s coming for the next Olympics. He trains with Ilia, so you can see the technical ability growing. I’ve been calling him Draco Malfoy on Ice mostly because he has the same name as Malfoy’s dad but also because he’s had the nerve to say he’s not that into Yuzuru Hanyu. Who is the Chosen One, if you ask some people.

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The Guy Who Is Definitely Not Making the Team But We Wish He Could

Camden Pulkinen: Aw, man. Camden has been in the hunt for years, and he seemed like a reasonable contender for the Third Man. But he’s been out all season with injury, and he finally pulled out of US Nationals last week. I don’t know that he’ll keep skating after this season as he seems to be working full time in finance, so he might be going out with a whimper rather than a bang. Cheers, Camden. We’ll always have that post-Olympics Worlds where you came out of of no where to place 5th and ensure the US Men kept three spots in the wake of the Nathan Chen retirement.

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My prediction: Ilia, Jason, Tomoki for the Olympics. Max, Torgs, and Jimmy for Four Continents. And then… Max gets a shot at Worlds when Jason withdraws after the Olympics.

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Now you should be all set to sit on the edge of your sofa for US Nationals! Some links to support you in this journey:

My previews for Dance, Women, and Pairs.

Information on schedule and viewing options.

Actual good commentary from Jackie Wong.

My Instagram, which is the only place I’m likely to post reactions as they happen, even though I lurk on Twitter and Blue Sky, too.

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Three Non-Figure Skating Things: Three Journals I’m Keeping Because I Have a Compulsive Need to Document Everything As if That Will Somehow Make Me Immortal

• The “morning pages” journal, which is just a spiral notebook. I usually do three handwritten stream-of-consciousness pages every morning, as recommended by Julia Cameron in The Artist’s Way. But I started to get bored with the sound of my own whining, so I’m been working my way through Suleika Jaouad’s excellent The Book of Alchemy for more directed journaling. I just started her New Year’s Journaling Project, and it’s a nice, gentle way to be reflective in a new year.

• I was Influenced to use a Hobonichi Cousin for memory keeping last year, and I’m keeping the habit this year. I cannot even begin to get into the rabbit’s hole of Hobonichi journals with you, so you can go watch this video and others by that creator if you’re willing to risk your own Influencing.

• A Five Year Journal. One page for each day of the year, but there are five blank entries per day. The idea is that you write on the same page every year and can see what you did on that day the year before. It’s fun to see the little daily details you forget. And it’s sobering to see how many days are not that different from the year before. (“Work was annoying today. Made a salad for dinner. Fritzi was really hyped up for some reason.” This is a common theme for many days.)

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What’s Next: No promises, but I might dredge up enough energy to do a speed round post about Canadian Nationals on Friday. If I can’t summon the energy, I will at least be here on Sunday to react to the live, reality show style announcement of the US Olympic team, on NBC. Hold on to your butts— Olympic season is upon us.